The current (2020-2021) Brasilian crop is expected to decrease by 20% compared to the previous year, due to the alternating bearings phenomenon (last year was a very good crop), warm temperatures and below-average rainfall after flowering.
Moreover, due to weather-related circumstances, the high-content Aldehyde orange oil will be particularly in short supply. Cold pressed orange oil price from Brasil has already increased up to 6.3-7.3 USD/kg based on the Aldehyde content, D-limonene up to 5.0 USD/kg.
Nevertheless, up until July/August 2020 prices for end-users in Europe and the US were still lower due to the previous year crop-stock of distributors and traders. These stocks are now running out and prices are rising in Europe as well.
Because of COVID-19, the demand is stronger than usual for cleaning and disinfection purposes, while the demand for the automotive, fine fragrance and flavour (chewing gum, candies, ..) industries is lower compared to the previous years. Due to lockdown, people are traveling much less leading to a weaker demand for perfumes and travel-related food products.
Although we do not expect prices to skyrocket like in 2016-2017, we recommend to regularly keep an eye on the market.